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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN AUG 16 1992
 
SATELLITE ANALYSTS AT BOTH SAB AND NHC HAVE BEEN CLASSIFYING THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. 
THE DVORAK CI NUMBER HAS BEEN 2.0 FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS.  METEOSAT
IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A BANDING TYPE PATTERN AND DEEP CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED CLOSE TO THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER...ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ISSUING DEPRESSION ADVISORIES.

NMC AVIATION MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLIES...AND ALL TRACK MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT.  INITIAL MOTION IS 280/18 AND THIS SAME GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THE AVIATION MODEL ALSO INDICATES STRONG 200 MB WINDS FROM THE EAST
OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING.  IF
THE SHEAR IS LIGHTER THAN FORECAST...MORE STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.

MAYFIELD
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/0300Z 11.2N  38.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     17/1200Z 11.6N  41.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     18/0000Z 12.2N  44.6W    35 KTS
36HR VT     18/1200Z 13.0N  48.3W    40 KTS
48HR VT     19/0000Z 13.7N  51.9W    40 KTS
72HR VT     20/0000Z 15.0N  59.0W    45 KTS