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...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
HURRICANE ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 1992
 
THE LAST RECON REPORTED 923 MB...WHICH SUGGESTS THE DEEPENING HAS
SLOWED OR MAYBE STOPPED FOR THE TIME BEING.  THE 8 NMI DIAMETER EYE
WILL LIKELY BE HARD TO MAINTAIN AND WE SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL ON THE FLORIDA SOUTHEAST
COAST.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM
GULF STREAM...WE WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG CAT 4 HURRICANE UNTIL THE
SYSTEM GETS WEAKENED BY THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  ANDREW IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN ONE SAFFIR/ SIMPSON CATEGORY WHILE MOVING OVER LAND...BUT
WILL STILL EMERGE AS A STRONG HURRICANE IN THE GULF WITH SOME
STRENGTHENING AGAIN POSSIBLE.
 
INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 270/14.  THE NMC AVIATION MODEL SHOWS THE 500
MB RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS.  THE RIDGE THEN ERODES SOME BUT
REMAINS NORTH OF ANDREW.  THEREFORE...WE ARE SIMPLY UPDATING OUR
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH CALLS FOR A LITTLE MORE NW MOTION NEAR THE
END OF THE FORECAST.  CURRENT TRACK IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DEEP
LAYER BAM THROUGH 48 HOURS.
 
MAYFIELD
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 25.4N  76.5W   130 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 25.5N  78.8W   130 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 25.9N  81.8W   110 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 26.6N  84.7W   110 KTS
48HR VT     25/1800Z 27.3N  87.5W   115 KTS
72HR VT     26/1800Z 29.0N  93.0W   115 KTS