Weather or Not http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/ en Copyright 2008 Wed, 08 Oct 2008 07:35:19 +0000 http://www.sixapart.com/movabletype/ http://www.rssboard.org/rss-specification fACORN tried to register the Dallas Cowboys as voters in Nevada, a pivotal "swing state" in the upcoming presidential election.
    "[Nevada] Secretary of State Ross Miller said the fraudulent registrations included forms for the starting lineup of the Dallas Cowboys football team. "Tony Romo is not registered to vote in the state of Nevada, and anybody trying to pose as Terrell Owens won't be able to cast a ballot on Nov. 4," Miller said."
This is one case where I wish somebody wasn't a Cowboys fan. What I wonder is: How shamelessly dumb must that registrant have been to think he could sign up Tony Romo, Marion Barber, Terrell Owens, DeMarcus Ware, Jason Witten, Felix Jones and the rest to vote and someone wouldn't notice? Equally alarming was the tidbit that all but 6 out of 1,800 names they registered in Washington two years ago were fake. Their actions in the 2004 cycle yielded an avalanche of charges of vote-buying, bogus registration, and voter intimidation tactics in various urban areas all across this land. And on and on... Congratulations, fACORN. You've added a new level of ludicrous legend to your status as poster child for vote-rigging shenanigans. This has me wondering. Will John Elway, Dan Marino and Troy Aikman be surprised to find out they each voted for Obama 38 times in Phoenix, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Milwaukee and Virginia Beach? Jesse "The Body" Ventura might vote for Obama in ten states without even realizing it. Casting ballots from the grave, of course, is a prized tradition in that organization. Who will they register next in Vegas, St. Louis and elsewhere...26 Duke Waynes, 41 Frank Sinatras and 115 Elvis Presleys? Hell, you don't even need to be a dead U.S. citizen to vote Democratic thanks to ACORN. I wonder where Napoleon Bonaparte, Winston Churchill, Sun Tzu, Judas Iscariot and Julius Caesar will show up on urban voter lists this year. How about entirely fictional names...think some Obama votes will come from Fred Flintstone, Scooby Doo, Martin Martian and Rudolph Reindeer? What are they going to use for the last names of Gilligan, Catwoman, Liberace, Socrates, Popeye and Tutankhamen? Did you realize animals and plants can vote? it wouldn't be surprising to see Polar Bear, Chinook Salmon, King Cobra, Loblolly Pine and Spotted Owl punching the Obama-Biden ticket in a few urban precincts. The Democrats might even find they've got the vote of inanimate objects after seeing names like Water Fountain, Fishing Pier, Septic Tank, Andromeda Galaxy and Master Cylinder on the registration lists. Ahh, election season...gotta love it. ]]> http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/10/facorn.html http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/10/facorn.html Not weather Wed, 08 Oct 2008 07:35:19 +0000 Reasons for the "Mortgage Meltdown" Analysts point not to greed, but to social activist politics In this day and age, this is just as plausible as the others most commonly proffered by Big Media for the ongoing mortgage lender mess. It's easy and popular to blame "corporate greed" and mismanagement since egregious examples of some of each clearly do exist. For the record, I do disagree with Zahn's implication that greed and mismanagement are negligible factors. AIG, Lehman, WaMu and Enron wouldn't have ended up like they did without colossally inept management. But it's wise to look deeper into the source of the problem, and upon doing so, we shall unearth another common denominator of at least equal culpability. The racial quota/preference factor cited by Zahn probably is a significant contributor. After reading that article, I don't understand how it couldn't be, logically speaking. Mortgage eligibility should be based entirely on ability to pay, not on race, color, gender or creed. If I'm lending a hundred bucks to someone, I absolutely don't give a damn what their color is. It's whether I believe, based on all available evidence and familiarity with that person, that they can repay. Sadly, such simple common sense hasn't followed in the mortgage industry, where far, far more money is at stake! History has shown that anytime we systematically discriminate against or for people because of their race, bad things happen; and this could be a sad example. Whatever the cause, far too many banks lent to far too many people who had no business with a home loan. To give a mortgage to someone with crappy credit, unstable employment or insufficient income -- no matter their color or background, no matter who is pressuring them to do so, no matter the "noble" reason -- is absolutely irresponsible. Magnify that by many millions, and we now reap what others have sown. And all the responsible home loan payers -- with solid credit histories and due diligence in saving and spending -- are paying for the reckless irresponsibility of others, in spades. Now we're all stuck between choosing a partial form of socialism (Federal buyouts and takeovers of private institutions) and utter economic collapse. It's like choosing whether one rather would be bitten by coral snake or giant crocodile. Thus blackmailed, we choose the fangs of socialism, the slow-kill solution instead of a certain and savage drowning, and hope someone will deliver antivenin soon. Now that we are are about to become a more socialist nation, this partially accomplishes a longstanding fantasy of the San Francisco/Boulder/Berkeley/Harvard crowd, for whom nothing short of full communism truly will satiate a gluttonously Marxist socioeconomic appetite. Thanks to JEvans for yet another thought-provoking link.]]> http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/09/reasons-for-the-mortgage-meltd.html http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/09/reasons-for-the-mortgage-meltd.html Fri, 26 Sep 2008 07:43:24 +0000 On Ike Some post-Ike ramblings, now that I've been back several days and had a chance to check back on Hurricane Eisenhower and its impacts... The first actual chase summary from Ike was a photographic one from the air, courtesy of Jason Sippel. Jason was lucky enough to get a seat on a NOAA plane into Ike when it was in the central Gulf. He didn't have a place to upload these excellent photos from his flight into the eye of Ike, so I gladly agreed to put up web-sized, low-res versions for him (used here by permission). Inbound, into the eyewall In the eye, looking down at the sea A crop-n-zoom of the shot above, looking down at the whitecaps on the ocean surface Outbound, leaving the eyewall (Great view of the curvature of the storm! Long-period swells are evident on the sea surface, lowest middle.) Sunset in a convection-sparse part of the hurricane This was during a period when satellite imagery indicated a paucity of convection in the inner part of the cyclone compared to most mature hurricanes, and now we've got an insider's view of that skeletal structure. During and long after Jason's flight, there were too many convection-deprived slices of that storm for its own good. This was the case both in terms of potential for reintensification when it got over pockets of high-heat content water in the central Gulf, and for tornado production during and after landfall. Looking back at soundings and radar loops, I agree with some reasoning that Bill McCaul wrote offline about the failure of Ike to produce more tornadoes than it did. Reproduced with Bill's permission...
    "...soundings and hodos in northern and eastern quads of Ike look highly anomalous, and rather unfavorable for lots of tornadoes. This is a continuation of the pattern that prevailed yesterday. There is way too much hot, dry air at midlevels on the north and east sides of this hurricane. Even the hodographs show only minimal veering at low levels, and some even show backing at midlevels! As further evidence of the anomalous character of this hurricane, the cirrus shield looks rather scrawny and confined for a storm whose low-level circulation is so large. With Rita in 2005, the cirrus shield was 2 or 3 times broader than with Ike."
I couldn't put it better. Ike had much too little sustained and supercellular convection, probably because of a strong negative influence from unfavorable environmental factors that Bill cited. Hence, my early thinking (on a couple of e-mail groups and discussion boards) that Ike would produce lots of tornadoes turned out to be overstated garbage. Much as in midlatitude systems, favorable thunderstorm-scale convective mode is so important to tornado potential, and this cyclone lacked that. Damage-wise, similar to after Katrina, NOAA's got an image map up that will take you to high-res, color satellite shots of the affected areas: http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/ike/IKE0000.HTM That alone could divert one's attention for a good long time. Also, here are a few "before and after" shots from an airplane, specifically focusing on beach houses at Crystal Beach TX (Bolivar Peninsula), that illustrate vividly the folly of putting homes out on a sand spit prone to hurricanes thanks to CB for these links). Photo 1 | Photo 2 | Photo 3 | Photo 4 ...And yet, the lesson never seems to take root, because of ridiculous, baseless and irrational local perceptions that these storms "happen somewhere else" or (a common rationalization often cited by those who rebuild) "won't hit here like that again." My main problem with these situations is if my dollars -- whether through taxes or elevated insurance rates for me -- involuntarily help to fund the building or rebuilding of beach houses in the path of hurricanes. The same story keeps coming up, over and over, from the Carolinas all the way around to Texas. If somebody wants to slap up a house right on a beach, fine...as long as they agree (and prove the means to) eat the cost, out of hide, if it goes down in a storm, including cleanup and environmental mitigation, and don't ask to be rescued at my (taxpayer) expense. Since a basic tenet of mine is that complaints without solutions are worthless, I'll offer the solution: Quit building that crap there! Fortunately, Texas already has a cool little law that could help to prevent some of this from happening again. Same goes with keeping exotic/invasive flora and fauna in hurricane prone areas. Stupid, stupid, stupid. You may recall that, after Hurricane Andrew, numerous monkeys escaped from various insufficiently robust and secure enclosures; and some still are on the loose today, both in inhabited and Everglades areas of southern Dade County. A private fish tank busted open in Andrew's surge and set loose lionfish into Biscayne Bay, and by a few miles' extension, the Gulf Stream. Untold thousands of stinging varmints descended from that release are causing trouble across the western Atlantic and Caribbean. Now comes word of a tiger loose on the Bolivar Peninsula. At least the big cat either will die or be rounded up eventually. In the meantime, there's probably plenty of wild and pet carrion on which for it to gnaw. I wonder how many of the people from Bolivar to Beaumont will claim their water-surged houses actually were destroyed by a tornado (for insurance claim) as happened after Katrina, with the government "covering up" the supposed occurrence of "thousands" of tornadoes. I've heard some amazing stories from damage surveyors of Katrina's aftermath about such claims by homeowners and their attorneys -- tales from the lunatic fringe that would be riotously laughable if it weren't for the fact that some paranoid ignoramuses actually believe such rubbish. Let's hope it doesn't become too common with Ike.]]> http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/09/on-ike.html http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/09/on-ike.html Sat, 20 Sep 2008 05:44:47 +0000 Palin and Obama vs. McCain and Biden Pat Buchanan has, he made a good point: She has more governmental executive experience than Obama, or even Biden or McCain for that matter. After all, remember that we are talking about an election for the executive department here. In the end, if elected, she may prove the gamble was worth it. I surely hope so. But in the meantime, indulge some reservations... As with Obama for President, I cannot justify Palin for VP based only on metrics of experience and credentials that constitute the political equivalent of bench press, 40-times, high jump and other measurables in athletics. Both Palin and Obama have gaping weaknesses as far as credentials or specific expertise of any sort are concerned. McCain and Biden do not, though Biden is much more of a party hack than McCain has proven to be. Fortunately the main vote here is for President and not VP, and as I've mentioned before, on the Presidential side, the credentials contest is so lopsided as to be laughable. Of course, my sociopolitical beliefs line up much closer to McCain/Palin than Obama/Biden, which is what most of us will base our vote upon anyway. So goes mine. But I admit Palin was a risky selection -- more so than, say, Kay Hutchison (if McCain was hell-bent on a female VP), Romney, Huckabee or Pawlenty (whom I thought would be the choice). In a way, though, this maneuver fits a pattern with McCain's history as a maverick. Palin most certainly is no Washington insider. If McCain gets elected -- and for the sake of getting more socially conservative, constitutional literalists on the Supreme Court, I deeply hope he does -- then he had better stay fit and healthy for at least one full term, until she either shows on-the-job that she's fine, or he can replace her with more robust Presidential timber. This looks to be a close election between candidates who are different as can be in so many respects that matter. Neither Presidential candidate is hapless cannon fodder, as with Walter Mondale and Mike Dukakis (or, arguably, Bob Dole and John Kerry). We all know that the right and left are going to dig in and vote for who they're going to vote for, period. That admittedly, and unashamedly, includes me (on the right). Therefore, the deciding factor at large, as in Bush41-Clinton, as in Bush43-Gore, as in Bush43-Kerry, will be the relatively small but all-important bloc of the unsure or unconvinced. McCain's best hope in this election are those swing voters away from the bastions of flaming leftism that characterize the coasts and northern cities. My hope in that regard is that middle and rural America uses its collectively superior reservoir of common sense and sensibility, in order to turn out in force and outvote the coasts and northern cities in this Presidential election. ]]> http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/09/palin-and-obama-vs-mccain-and.html http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/09/palin-and-obama-vs-mccain-and.html Not weather Wed, 03 Sep 2008 07:09:16 +0000 Here Comes Gustav pre-Katrina fears about New Orleans don't come true again!] We severe storms forecasters at the unnamed center surely will have some tornado related forecasts going (outlooks, MCDs, watches). Should be fun and challenging from a tornado prediction pespective, as they all are. Some forecasting tips for TC tornadoes... Of the four needed ingredients for tornadic supercells (moisture, instability, lift, shear), two are there in ridiculous abundance in a landfalling or newly inland hurricane: moisture and shear. Lift is subtle outside bands, strong in them, but the crappy lapse rates aloft also bottom out with weak or no substantial capping in the typical TC environment. A big wind envelope increases the area of large 0-1 km hodographs and the area covered by a wind environment favorable for supercells. This is one reason why Katrina and Ivan produced so freaking many tornadoes...they were big as well as strong and long-lived. Instability is a huge key. TC tornadoes can and do happen at night, but climatologically, peak during the day. This is no accident. Surface thermal analysis (every 1 or 2 deg F) especially within the outer ~340-120 Cartesian degree sector (NE quad plus some cushion either side) of the envelope is critical. This is particularly true by day when insolation in cloud breaks and dry slots tends to create or magnify inhomogeneities (baroclinic features like differential heating boundaries) and thermal axes. A hurricane is an MCS, and can and should be mesoanalyzed! In addition to supercells either alone between bands or embedded within them, watch for those supercells or even strong, persistent nonsupercellular convective elements that are about to cross any thermal inhomogeneities. Integrate satellite trends, radar echo loops, VAD wind profile tendencies, upper air maps and environmental mesoanalyses into a 4-D diagnostic model in your mind, and TC tornado prediction becomes much less mysterious. Still challenging, to be sure, but with success achievable. In 12 hourly upper air analyses, watch for areas and especially gradients of drying aloft, per Lon Curtis' study on upper drying in TC tornado outbreaks. Bill McCaul's climatologies showed CAPE tends to increase outward away from the CDO where more opportunities exist for (differential) heating. My experience analyzing and forecasting TC tornado situations bears all this out. Also remember that the storm spins down slower just above the surface than at the surface, so hodographs in the NE quadrant, at least 1-2 days inland, still can be really big; because even as the surface winds weaken, the shear stays large. Alas, the favorable tornado envelope for Gustav, based on NHC's forecast track, will cover lots of pine forests where actually observing tornadoes would be a huge challenge, to say the least -- even more so than low cloud bases, rain, and small, transient nature of most TC tornadoes typically presents. Another reason I rather would chase hurricanes in south Texas...]]> http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/08/here-comes-gustav.html http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/08/here-comes-gustav.html Weather Sun, 31 Aug 2008 11:32:52 +0000 Misguided Infatuation in the Front Yard Tibicen pruinosa, photo) that are so prevalent in these parts. I haven't seen one before, here or in Dallas, though I've read since that they're natives --- the bush cicada (Tibicen dorsata, photo). Cicadas of all species make great snacks for the Mississippi kites that stay here in the warm season. In fact, Elke once tossed a male dog day cicada out of the garage, only to see a kite swoop in and snatch it mid-air, the insect's obnoxiously loud buzz sounding from every point along the kite's flight path before predator and prey receded somewhere into the distance. Listening to the Doppler effect manifest in a rapidly receding cicada alarm is an interesting and uncommon experience, but well worth the novelty should the opportunity arise. We've got a mating pair of roadrunners that visit quite often. In addition to their obvious decimation of my property's toad and tarantula populations the last few years, the roadrunners love to grab any cicada they can. It's downright hilarious to watch one of these dinosaur-like creatures dart back and forth a short distance with a buzzing cicada, throttle it a spell, then gulp it down. Cicadas also are an edible snack for people, and like crickets and termites, a nice source of protein in survival situations. [We'll make an exception for one cricket-consuming Dallas Cowboys fullback!] I'll eat cicadas, but only if necessary. It ain't necessary yet. In the meantime, I'm content to listen to their summer choruses and watch them get devoured by other fauna. Somehow, my bold little interlocutor somehow escaped the kites, roadrunners and cicada killer wasps, only to pester me incessantly. She flew above and around, then landed on the mower or in the grass near me, again and again. Each time, I picked her up and either threw her in the air, whereupon she would swoop about and descend back down near me, or placed her on one of several little lollipop trees we've planted between the native ones out in the lawn. The cicada would climb the stick-trunk slowly, get near the top, take off, and...head right for me again. I kept wondering, what was this bug's major malfunction? If I were a predator, I would have consumed it a dozen times over by now. Finally, I figured out why the cicada just wouldn't leave me alone. The attraction wasn't anything about me, fortunately. It was the machine. The cicada was lookin' for love...from the lawn mower! It took me awhile to figure this out, but what else is there to occupy the idle mind while cutting high, damp grass in 75 degree dew points? The noise of the mower does bear a fleeting resemblance to a magnified male cicada call. Somehow, miss lonely-heart cicada became convinced that she had located the ultimate male cicada - from the bug's perspective, a huge, strong, uncommonly loud and magnificent dude, clad in red exoskeleton, bursting forth a most powerful and irresistible call, a mighty stud that surely could deliver the goods better than any other. What bush cicada in her right mind would turn down such a romantic opportunity, right? Alas, the mower ran out of gas, and the cicada wasn't seen again. Poor bug...jilted by a Troy-Bilt. ]]> http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/08/misguided-infatuation-in-the-f.html http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/08/misguided-infatuation-in-the-f.html Not weather Tue, 26 Aug 2008 06:52:47 +0000 EJSSM Bibliography Full Bibliography of the Electronic Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology (as of 4 August 2008)

CHRONOLOGICAL -- Most Recent First

    Esterheld, J. M. and D. J. Giuliano, 2008: Discriminating between tornadic and non-tornadic supercells: A new hodograph technique. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 3 (2), 1-50.

    Ostuno, E. J., 2008: A case study in forensic meteorology: Investigating the 3 April 1956 tornadoes in southwest Lower Michigan. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 3 (1), 1-33.

    Straka, J. M., E. N. Rasmussen, R. P. Davies-Jones, and P. M. Markowski, 2007: An observational and idealized numerical examination of low-level counter-rotating vortices in the rear flank of supercells. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 2 (8), 1-22.

    Lewis, J. M., 2007: A forecaster's story: Robert H. Johns. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 2 (7), 1-19.

    Kennedy, A. D., E. N. Rasmussen, and J. M. Straka, 2007: A visual observation of the 6 June 2005 descending reflectivity core. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 2 (6), 1-12.

    Doswell, C. A. III, 2007: Small sample size and data quality issues illustrated using tornado occurrence data. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 2 (5), 1-16.

    Doswell, C. A. III, and M. J. Haugland, 2007: A comparison of two cold fronts -- Effects of the planetary boundary layer on the mesoscale. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 2 (4), 1-12.

    Lindley, T. T., and L. R. Lemon, 2007: Preliminary observations of weak three-body scatter spikes associated with low-end severe hail. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 2 (3), 1-15.

    Bunkers, M. J., and J. W. Stoppkotte, 2007: Documentation of a rare tornadic left-moving supercell. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 2 (2), 1-22.

    Doswell, C. A. III, 2007: Historical overview of severe convective storms research. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 2 (1), 1-25.

    Doswell, C. A. III, and D. M. Schultz, 2006: On the use of indices and parameters in forecasting severe storms. , 1 (3), 1-22.

    Umscheid, M. E., J. P. Monteverdi, and J. M. Davies, 2006: Photographs and analysis of an unusually large and long-lived firewhirl. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 1 (2), 1-13.

    Edwards, R., and D. M. Schultz, 2006: Editorial: Introducing EJSSM. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 1 (1), 1-2.

ALPHABETIC

    Bunkers, M. J., and J. W. Stoppkotte, 2007: Documentation of a rare tornadic left-moving supercell. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 2 (2), 1-22.

    Doswell, C. A. III, 2007: Historical overview of severe convective storms research. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 2 (1), 1-25.

    Doswell, C. A. III, 2007: Small sample size and data quality issues illustrated using tornado occurrence data. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 2 (5), 1-16.

    Doswell, C. A. III, and M. J. Haugland, 2007: A comparison of two cold fronts -- Effects of the planetary boundary layer on the mesoscale. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 2 (4), 1-12.

    Doswell, C. A. III, and D. M. Schultz, 2006: On the use of indices and parameters in forecasting severe storms. , 1 (3), 1-22.

    Edwards, R., and D. M. Schultz, 2006: Editorial: Introducing EJSSM. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 1 (1), 1-2.

    Esterheld, J. M. and D. J. Giuliano, 2008: Discriminating between tornadic and non-tornadic supercells: A new hodograph technique. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 3 (2), 1-50.

    Kennedy, A. D., E. N. Rasmussen, and J. M. Straka, 2007: A visual observation of the 6 June 2005 descending reflectivity core. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 2 (6), 1-12.

    Lewis, J. M., 2007: A forecaster's story: Robert H. Johns. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 2 (7), 1-19.

    Lindley, T. T., and L. R. Lemon, 2007: Preliminary observations of weak three-body scatter spikes associated with low-end severe hail. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 2 (3), 1-15.

    Ostuno, E. J., 2008: A case study in forensic meteorology: Investigating the 3 April 1956 tornadoes in southwest Lower Michigan. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 3 (1), 1-33.

    Straka, J. M., E. N. Rasmussen, R. P. Davies-Jones, and P. M. Markowski, 2007: An observational and idealized numerical examination of low-level counter-rotating vortices in the rear flank of supercells. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 2 (8), 1-22.

    Umscheid, M. E., J. P. Monteverdi, and J. M. Davies, 2006: Photographs and analysis of an unusually large and long-lived firewhirl. Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor., 1 (2), 1-13.

]]> http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/08/ejssm-bibliography.html http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/08/ejssm-bibliography.html Weather Mon, 04 Aug 2008 10:18:08 +0000 Hand Analysis of Weather Charts: A Lost Art and Science? immerse in the observations, connecting them into a carefully constructed, multivariate conceptual model of that snapshot of our atmosphere. Excellent analysis is time-consuming, and requires a good deal of both skill and practice. Unfortunately, especially in local offices, hand analysis is vanishing, partly because of increasing volumetric workload (and resulting loss of time) and partly from ignorance and laziness. I often feel that time pressure myself, and fear that the same fate may befall the national center(s) if we're not diligent and careful. The slow creep of forecast automation -- and of the related phenomenon of "meteorological cancer" (first noted in this 31 year old paper by Snellman) -- is on the move in some insidious ways. As I've pointed out here before, procedure is taking over forecasters' time at the expense of meteorology. Sometimes it seems like those of us who bother to do detailed hand analysis are becoming an endangered species. It utterly baffles me why so many put so little value in it, and why the quality of many hand analyses is so poor -- with lines on the wrong side of data, closed highs or lows unlabeled, missed boundaries, unlabeled lines, time continuity jumps (e.g., a cold front oscillating backward from one map to the next) and other fundamental errors. Were I still a synoptic meteorology teaching assistant, I would assign grades of "D" or lower to 90% of the drawn maps I have seen, anywhere, in the last several years. I don't understand this inattention to excellence in hand analysis. Is it lack of exposure or training, time pressure, disinterest, inexperience or all of the above? Acquiring the deepest possible grasp on the current state of atmosphere is absolutely essential to forming the conceptual models needed for consistently good forecasts, and also, for good forecasts of rare and extreme events that are most poorly handled by objective analyses and guidance. Throughout all the technological advances, this basic truth remains unaltered. I engage both hand-drawn maps and objective analyses of all kinds on a daily basis, in considerable detail, and can assure you that the latter is a piss-poor substitute for the former, when excellence in hand analysis is made top priority. Now please understand that I wouldn't violate the Golden Rule by holding anyone else to a greater standard than myself; nor do I claim to be a more skilled analyst. The principle of (and need for) analytic excellence absolutely applies to me as much as anyone. I can (and do) go back and find inexcusable and shameful mistakes in my own analyses. A missed max or min here or there, or a boundary not drawn under hurried circumstances, may not seem like much, but how does one know what "minor" feature is really unimportant until the event is over? Superficial skimming of objective, computer-drawn analyses -- which often miss or misplace small but critical features -- is not the same as truly diving into the data, taking the time to thoroughly draw for and interpret it. If it comes to a choice between more hand analysis or more model output, I'm choosing the hand analysis. An informal (not yet published) experiment called Project Phoenix, managed by Pat McCarthy of Environment Canada's Prairie and Arctic Storm Prediction Centre, showed over several seasons that forecasters who looked at observational information only (including hand analyzed charts, as well as satellite, radar and other observed data) performed better at forecasting basic variables during day-1, and often into day-2, than those on regular, operational shifts looking at numerical models. Why would this be? I don't advocate eschewing model guidance any more than I would dropping hand analyses. In the practical sense of operational forecasting, it would be dumb to ignore the most pertinent nuggets of prognostic information. I make intensive use of models in day-to-day forecasting, including an increasingly heavy reliance on clues provided by short-range ensemble forecasts (SREF). But when pressed for time, I'll sacrifice a deterministic model or two for more insight into the current state of things. After all, how can we consistently predict the future atmosphere without deepest possible understanding of the present atmosphere? Those who claim to have such understanding by ignoring manual diagnostics and looking at objective analyses instead have deluded themselves, amidst the intoxicating abundance of quick-n-ready digital diagnostics -- the choice drug of forecasting, so to speak. These forecasters are dooming themselves to a fate they probably deserve -- automation of their jobs -- but in the process, increasing that risk for the rest of us as well. Just remember: garbage in, garbage out. Without corroboration from reality, how does one know the computer drawn map is accurate? Failing to do good hand analysis also is quite selfish. The subjective analyses are not just for the forecaster doing them; they are for the entire forecast team and shift successors, and are important to continuity of understanding of an evolving situation. Even if a forecaster doesn't "get much" from his own analysis (which is a surefire sign of a scientific and conceptual deficiency on his/her part), it has meaning to others, and as such, should be done and done thoroughly. Hence... Understanding the current state of the atmosphere isn't a matter of personal choice; it's a matter of professional responsibility. The solution for the troubled forecaster is simple: Get out those colored pencils and start drawing! To help get going, here are links to online, national upper air maps, ideal for hand analysis and optimized for 11 x 17 printer paper (but useable at smaller sizes): 12Z Plots with VAD and Profiler Winds (PDF format): 925 mb | 850 mb | 700 mb | 500 mb | 250 mb
00Z Plots with VAD and Profiler Winds (PDF format): 925 mb | 850 mb | 700 mb | 500 mb | 250 mb
    The first step in making the best forecast that the science permits requires a thorough high quality diagnosis. Successful short range forecasts are more the result of good diagnosis than of prognosis.
              - Len Snellman, 9 October 1991
]]> http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/07/hand-analysis-of-weather-chart.html http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/07/hand-analysis-of-weather-chart.html Weather Sat, 19 Jul 2008 04:27:13 +0000 Wind Farms and the Storm Observer Outflow Power and Solar Powered Wind Power), and fully intend to make use of them in the future as opportunity permits. Some other storm observers have taken great shots using wind farms as foregrounds or silhouettes. Elke and I also took a bunch of mixed wind-farm pics (old style windmills in front of the giant new turbines) recently in Baca County CO, just W of US-287 (not while chasing). I'll post those links once we get the shots processed. [Still working on images from 2008 chase vacation...] I'm in favor of more wind farms, which is fortunate since their numbers across the Great Plains are rising no matter what we think about them. They provide relatively clean energy and an economic boost to remote and downtrodden communities. In the process of learning more about the Roscoe wind farm shown in that last link, I came across this article from NPR online, which illustrates the point well. Many of these areas have been beaten into submission economically and welcome both the income infusion and the opportunity to contribute some cleaner energy to the power stream than what's come out of the ground beneath. The expensive part, from various sources I've read, is providing the high-capacity transmission infrastructure to get this power from remote, windswept reaches of the Great Plains to somewhat nearby areas of high demand (e.g., the Metroplex, DEN, MKC, etc.). Boone Pickens wants to set up essentially a nearly unbroken chain of wind farms from west Texas to the Canadian border. The guy's motives are questionable and his schemes often laced with more hyperbole than legitimacy. Still, whether it's by his doing or from an aggregated collection of lesser fat-cats, you can count on the same basic thing happening: numerous wind farms from west TX to the Dakotas within 10-15 years. The energy source exists, and as it becomes more economically feasible, will be exploited to the extent that environmental regulation, private landowners and market economics allow. And it's going to be a lot harder to regulate something as wholly subjective and purely judgmental as "sight pollution" versus measurable, tangible, physical emissions from fossil fuels. Like other Great Plains enthusiasts, I would like to keep the wind farms out of some areas of special scenic meaning to me as well (e.g., Flint Hills, Badlands, Wichita Mountains, national grasslands). [Incidentally, a part of the power I'm using to post this comes from that OEC wind farm N of the Wichitas, near Meers OK. That sucker slices across the northern horizon every time I'm atop Mt. Scott.] Compromises will be necessary between competing aesthetic/economic/societal interests if this is going to work at all. But if we as a civilization decide to keep either exhausting or checking off sources like wind, coal, nuclear, oil, solar, hydro, etc., from the list, for various reasons large and small, then we might as well let the roads crumble, close down our offices, and go back to a mixed hunter-gatherer/agrarian society, and storm chasing and all BLOGs are moot matters anyway. [I am, BTW, for vastly expanded nuclear energy production in this country as well. ] As far as the kinetic energy removed by wind turbines from the boundary layer, this needs to be analyzed better to see what, if any, physical feedbacks there are among pressure/height gradients (wind origin), forcings aloft for related isallobaric fields in the lowest ~100 m where the energy is being extracted, and the response/restoration of said gradients to that energy extraction (if any). I'll hypothesize that it's a negligible gnat fart of an effect given the small aggregated cross sectional area of the blades compared to any vertical cross section of the entire boundary layer across the Plains, but let's find out if that's valid. Does an array of turbines extracting a few gigawatts of energy alter del-p at the surface, or isallohypsic patterns aloft by upward propagating influences of boundary layer processes? How big of a butterfly is a wind farm in Texas relative to a tornado in Kansas? We do know one thing: Ultimately, wind energy is solar in origin, and the sun's output is independent of kinetic energy removal in the ~100 m layer above ground. Beyond that...who knows? It's a great area for research. ]]> http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/07/wind-farms-and-the-storm-observer.html http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/07/wind-farms-and-the-storm-observer.html Weather Tue, 15 Jul 2008 04:54:08 +0000 Long Unanswered Questions Dallas Times Herald.] Recently, while engaging in the reasonably mindless but necessary chore of mowing grass, a series of previously scattershot questions came to me that I realized still have not been satisfactorily or completely answered, and about which I have wondered since childhood. * Why is elementary school often referred to as "grade school," when middle (a.k.a. junior high) and high schools also have grades? * What is the name of the person who decided that "ain't" shouldn't be a word, and what gave him or her the authority to make that decision for me? * Smoking causes disease in oneself and others, tars lungs and teeth, fills the house with noxious fumes, makes one's breath stink, and costs lots of money. Why do it? * What, exactly, is the modern function (not purpose, but practical function) of a necktie? If "none," what's the point of using one, really, other than to waste time and effort? * How can it matter which hands you use to cut the meat and hold the fork, as long as you're keeping your elbows to yourself and the food gets in your mouth without making a mess? * How can it be anything but hypocritical for those on the left who advocate "tolerance," "diversity," and "tolerance of diversity," to be so bitterly intolerant of those with opinions radically different than their own (e.g., neoconservatives and evangelical Christians)? * Yellow Cab, Greyhound and Amtrak never "overbook." [Neither does JetBlue these days.] Why should United, Delta or American? * Two identically sized bottles of shampoo have the same ingredients in the same proportions, and smell the same. Only the labels are different. Why on earth would anyone pay three times as much for one as for the other? * For more than a few months, my parents could not get away with spending more than what they earned, even if the spending was for what we believed to be necessities. How does the government? ]]> http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/07/long-unanswered-questions.html http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/07/long-unanswered-questions.html Not weather Sat, 12 Jul 2008 01:49:07 +0000 Today's Sociopolitical Incitement this link to a thought provoking essay on the greater unsaid agenda behind environmental extremism, and how it is becoming normalized, mainstream behavior for the Democratic Party -- including it's current deity du jour, B. Hussein Obama. My only change would be that the movement he represents, cloaked in a deceptive veneer of "audacious hope," is far more socialist than fascist. For all the hand-wringing over climate change on both sides of the fence (most of it driven by underlying dogmatic agendas), I've got the simple solution for whatever shifts may occur: adapt! We are, by innate origin, a tropical species anyway. And if technological assistance and innovation cannot aid us in any adaptation necessary, then so be it. Humanity isn't promised a free ride on this ball of water and dirt. The possibilities of warm climate shifts don't bother me a tiny fraction as much as the reactionary extremism to the most speculatively grandiose of those possibilities, and the consequences thereof on the social and economic fabric of the greatest and most powerful nation the world ever has known. Sure, I personally believe it's dumb to drive SUVs around unless they're going to be taken off-road and used for their constructed purpose. Sure, I would like for my own vehicle to be more fuel efficient -- or for my 6'-3" frame, my family that includes an even taller 12 year old son, and all my gear, to fit comfortably in smaller cars. Sure, I would love to see far more people put true effort into conserving energy and resources (after all, isn't conserving at the definitional root of conservatism?). But that's up to the consumer to decide, not the government to decide for us. I got solar hot water and geothermal systems, and set up recycling bins at home, because I freely chose to conserve, not because anyone else (especially in government) told me to, and most certainly not because of any guilt-trip spewed by the green goblins of environmental nannyhood. So if B. Hussein Obama doesn't want me eating a great American corn-fed steak, I'll tell him exactly where to stick his granola bars (that come packaged in petroleum-derived plastic, BTW). Same goes for anyone else amongst the babbling lemmings of leftism that will follow this guy into their delusional dreamscape of socialist rule. Still, despite BHO's abject lack of substance or of expertise in anything in particular (outside of smooth talking), a perfect storm of events may well put this shyster in the Oval Office. For reasons both justified and not, Republicans in general are unpopular at this time. BHO and his unprecedented campaign wealth have vanquished the Wicked Witch of Arkansas/Chicago/New York and (on the surface) folded her into his web. He's charismatic, cunning, clever, with a shiny smile and a smooth style -- someone who could con most folks out of the lint in their pockets and sell it back to them for a hundred bucks. Gifted by virtue of birthplace with the street sense of my inner-city background, I can see straight through his game like a new windshield. Apparently, however, too many millions of others haven't had to deal with enough used car salesmen, dice throwers and downtown wristwatch hustlers to develop that ability. And they're going to vote for him. This modern day snake oil salesman is running against a very old man in John McCain who, much as I respect him and his vastly superior Presidential credentials, simply may not be able to keep up oratorically in the media sound-bite game to which the huge majority of voters are so pathetically gullible. The West Coast and Northeast are, by in large, bastions of leftism and, as such, already lost to electoral insanity. But if BHO somehow can convince the bulk of far more sensible Middle America to vote for him, it will be the most impressive con job ever performed on a group of tens of millions. Not on me. Unless John McCain chooses an absolute moron as his running mate (in which case I would abstain, given the natural lifespan of someone his age and the potential the running mate may become President), I'm voting for the Arizona senator and Vietnam POW. I fear I won't be in the majority. Say, how big of a "carbon footprint" is B. Hussein Obama's campaign and its fawning media entourage leaving anyway? This hypocrisy alert was brought to you by red-state sensibility. ;-) ]]> http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/06/todays-sociopolitical-inciteme.html http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/06/todays-sociopolitical-inciteme.html Not weather Wed, 25 Jun 2008 03:18:50 +0000 Review: LAS Tracking Key GPS device web link) -- intended by the manufacturer for fleet vehicle monitoring. Apparently it often is used to track truck drivers. If an employee goes through that liquor store drive-through when on the job, this will show it, given the 2.5 m tracking resolution. Zoom in far enough in Google-Earth, and you will see the driver's track into that parking lot or off the road. It also gives max speed in mph (and location of that speed). We used it for self-surveillance: to track chase routes and stops, and the timing thereof. It was a gift, so why not? I know many storm observers instead employ mapping software and a GPS puck to do basically the same thing, but this device has very useful Google-Earth output (more below), and also will be used to keep track of my soon-to-be-driving teenager's vehicular whereabouts. In short, it's worthwhile if you have multiple uses in different vehicles, such as tracking your own storm observing and the driving of someone else. Some things to know: You will need to be still for more than about 5-7 minutes for the output to show a stop, but because of two factors, we still get useful output, even for quick "pull-outs" to photograph a storm: 1. High spatial resolution: Pulling safely off the road, as storm chasers are supposed to do when performing photography, shows up on the tracking at highest (2.5 m) resolution as a knob or bump on the path. If you back a few m into a pull-off, side path or driveway, this ensures the "bump" will show on Google-Earth. 2. High temporal resolution: The raw (.las) log file shows the times and locations, so one can see when one was stopped even for brief "stop-n-shoot-fast" situations. The device is weather sealed and has an intense magnet that should secure its place anywhere inside the car. I wouldn't trust it on the outside, given what we do, because it still could get knocked loose by, say, a tumbleweed or hailstone that smacks it while driving at 60 mph. I stuck the tracker to the inner top/back window frame of my sedan, and its reception was almost flawless. I can't speak for its reception when placed in more surreptitious locations in a vehicle; but others have posted glowing reviews on sites like Amazon. My favorite aspect of the LAS Tracker is that its output can be set to upload directly into Google-Earth, and saved as a "kmz" file, so we can have all chase routes stored quickly and permanently. We also can use the "kmz" file to match all our photo locations to the landmarks around the shoot. A photographer can derive very precise directional and positioning info this way, in combination with the EXIF data from the camera that shows the lens' focal length, to better locate a distant subject, in addition to himself. LAS Tracker has three minor nuisances, all involving the batteries. 1. One has to unscrew the battery compartment to turn it on and off. I realize this was designed deliberately, so the subject of surveillance can't just switch it off. [My subject will lose driving privileges if any harm comes to the device, or its signal is interrupted for any reason.] But the battery compartment's screws are tiny, and therefore, easily fumbled, dropped and lost by someone like me with large hands. 2. The battery compartment is too deep for the batteries, which on rough and shaky roads, may pop loose from the terminals while still within the compartment. I jerry-rigged a solution by folding up a piece of #2 plastic between the compartment door and the battery slots, to hold them in place. 3. Battery life is far below what's advertised. When using Ni-metal hydride (rechargeable) batteries, I had to change them out every day. When I tried to leave them in two days, the batteries (new Energizers, BTW) ran out during the evening of day-2. I don't use its own mapping software; so I can't say one way or another about that. I've read that it has old, crappy mapping, but it doesn't matter if you've got Google-Earth anyway. All in all, I do recommend the tracker, as long as you are willing to change/charge batteries daily, and to build that into your nightly equipment unloading and debriefing routine. ]]> http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/06/review-las-tracking-key-gps-de.html http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/06/review-las-tracking-key-gps-de.html Weather AND Not Sun, 22 Jun 2008 18:26:32 +0000 RT's Suckfest is Over this tornado because of a surgically repaired arm mired in a cumbersome, unwieldy sling. Pneumonia, flu, surgery, suddenly hospitalized relatives, bad patterns, inescapable prior commitments...you name it, aside from the lack of photogenic tubes when able to head out, other calamities of many sorts have dominated his chase vacations. Rich has described the phenomenon to many friends and colleagues this way: "(For photographing tornadoes) this whole decade has been an absolute suckfest." I am happy to report the suckfest is ending. Rich, chasing with Ryan Jewell, saw a few decent contrast, daytime tornadoes out on NW KS yesterday, and from what I've heard, got a few shots of them. They'll have more opportunities for perhaps even better success today, as stronger storm-relative upper level winds give them a shot at more updraft-precipitation separation. Outstanding! This is great news, not just for Rich and Ryan, but for the rest of us who have watched this sad state of affairs unfold since 2000. I say this not just because Rich and Ryan are among the photographers for Insojourn, and the possibility of more great images beckons. Instead, as a fellow 23+ year storm observer who has experienced long droughts, it stinks to go extended periods without the atmosphere providing photogenic hoses on available chase days. Rich is as skilled and knowledgeable of a storm observer as there is. But misfortune with timing -- luck still being the biggest factor in chase success -- has had him snake-bitten for the most part. The only cure is a feast on the smorgasbord of atmospheric violence. And so it is. I'm glad they called with their reports, too. Rich and Ryan didn't have contact info and aren't on Spotter Network yet, so it was good to be able to relay their reports to the right offices quickly and without disrupting official duties whatsoever at my unnamed workplace. It was also neat to be able to see their observations on Ryan's dashboard camera, which will be active again today whenever they have digital cellular telephone connectivity. I'm watching this whole several-day event unfold in front of computer screens, being on a set of evening shifts throughout. I won't complain, though. It goes that way sometimes, and I actually don't mind as much as it may seem. There certainly are worse things to keep you from observing an event than forecasting for it. Doing outlooks for these events is challenging in a good way, because every forecaster wants to tackle the "big stuff." Work has to take priority anyway..it pays the bills! I'm also saving hundreds of bucks in fuel and lodging that I'll surely spend later when Elke and I go on our June vacation. So my hope for Ryan and Rich today is a hosefest of epic proportions, to further flush the suckfest down the toilet of history. Go git' em dudes! ]]> http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/05/rts-suckfest-is-over.html http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/05/rts-suckfest-is-over.html Weather Fri, 23 May 2008 10:14:15 +0000 Birthday Musings wasn't cheap, but who expected it to be with either of these guys? The risk with Barber in particular is that his confrontational and relentless running style -- which I admire, actually -- will wear him down prematurely. Given that, the length of the deal is just about right, perhaps a year long since The Barbarian will turn 31 before contract expiration. [This signing actually makes me all the more glad for drafting both Felix Jones and Tashard Choice.] Terence Newman already is one of the top corners in the NFL, so his deal was on par with market value. That may be overinflated for all players, but Jerry has to deal the deck he's given. I like the idea of reshuffling the balance sheets on Tony Romo's contract to accommodate this, such that he actually gets more up-front money in the form of a signing bonus and counts far less against the upcoming seasons' cap. I've had problems with the way Jerry has handled the salary cap in the past, especially when he overpaid the back end of veteran contracts in the 90s (a boneheaded strategy that ended up imploding the Greatest Team Ever). By contrast, this and several other deals the past 2-3 years provide considerable confidence that he not only has figured it out, but mastered the shell game. Jerry has led Cowboys fans to the height of elation (3 Super Bowl crowns in 4 years) and frustration (the idiotic ways he fired both Tom Landry and Jimmy Johnson, and his egomaniacal mismanagement of the team in the mid-late 90s). Let's hope these maneuvers keep things on the upswing this time. Now the attention turns to some of the other core players, like Chris Canty, Ken Hamlin, Terrell Owens and especially DeMarcus Ware. I don't care if Jerry has to wear pink leotards and bend over backward into a barrel of Hawaiian Punch while donning snorkeling gear and waving a copy of the VHS tape of Who Framed Roger Rabbit. DeMarcus Ware must be signed, priority one! He is an absolute terror for opposing offenses, one of the top two or three defensive players in the league at any position, and indispensable to the teams' hope of winning another Super Bowl. Pay him top dollar. Others will restructure to accommodate Ware because everyone and their mom knows he's the best player on that or just about any defense. Owens? Well, I went on record before he came as being against his presence, but I will admit that (so far!) T.O. has proved me wrong. I hope he continues to, because the Cowboys' lack of depth at wideout has made them far too dependent on him. So get him signed. The guy is a workout warrior and will keep his body in amazing shape for even an NFL player, and wants to bask in the brilliant glory of JerryWorld when that facility opens, but at some point he will lose a step. At least he finally seems to have a quarterback he respects and likes, professionally as well as personally. He's saying all the right things so far also, unlike in his contract years in his previous stations. I say, a 3 year deal with incentives out to 5 is good for his situation. Canty? Underrated and improving, a surefire Pro Bowler in the future. He can rush from the end or collapse the pocket, blocks passes, and is getting better versus the run every year. He's far better than Marcus Spears, but gives out vibes of wanting to test the market. Ken Hamlin? Another top-5 position player (safety) in the NFL, now that he's healthy again. He is another must-sign. Fortunately he seems to want to stay in Dallas. Pac-Man? Don't get me started. I trust this guy way less even than T.O., for reasons that are well publicized. He's been an irresponsible, reckless punk and thug, a seeping lesion on the face of society, and I do not expect this leopard to shed his spots. But we've got him, like it or not. Get what we can out of his amazing on-field talents before he starts hitting any of the thousands of strip joints in the Metroplex and gets hauled off to the can again. But don't get dependent on him, because that's exactly when he'll get busted for the last time as an NFL player. At least he comes cheap, with lots to prove, and one last chance. Geez, I went on another Cowboys tangent. It's why I don't BLOG about them that much. There's way too much to cover about your five-time Super Bowl champions and too little time for it all. Weatherwise, there won't be any tornadoes for my birthday. It falls on a bizarre and inexplicable climatological minimum in nationwide tornadoes for the month of May (As Doswell 2007 illustrated in his Fig. 3, green line). I'll be on evening and nights shifts through early June, but maybe I can treat Elke to another birthday tornado for her, this year on the day our chase vacation begins. It's the least I could do, atmosphere willing. That amazing woman puts up with me all the time, which surely qualifies her for sainthood. ]]> http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/05/birthday-musings.html http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/05/birthday-musings.html Weather AND Not Wed, 21 May 2008 08:12:07 +0000 That Town Must Close for Good further waste to much of the old mining town of Picher, barely south of the Kansas-Oklahoma line. NWS Tulsa has a nice, concise, online briefing about the tornado, which killed six people and injured at least 150 others in Picher before causing even more casualties in Missouri. The tornado only has hastened the inevitable demise of Picher (AP story). Once sporting a population of 20,000, only around 800 folks remain. Picher lies inside the notorious Tar Creek Superfund site (more information here and here). Federal and state officials are doing the right thing by not funding any rebuilding, and instead directing relief toward relocation of the folks who remain. While I still wish they had taken this approach on a larger scale with New Orleans, post-Katrina, it seems the lesson has been learned to some extent. Common sense and rational thought prevail over sentimentality, as it should. Government buyouts of homes already were underway, and should accelerate. Evacuating and demolishing the town now is the simplest and most prudent solution. Now I only will grieve for those whose lives were lost, because I grieved for the long-dying town itself long ago, on my first and only daylight visit. Steve Corfidi and I were on a storm chase trip from Kansas City, back in March 1996, on the way to the Nowata area. As we zigzagged through town, we sat aghast at the deplorable state of Picher. Though it was just a few minutes from 12 years ago, those mental images linger vividly today. Ramshackle frame houses abounded, some abandoned, others occupied. A few of the occupied homes were in worse conditions than those long vacant, with busted windows, peeling paint, rotting wood, torn screen doors, animals running hither and yon, some porch overhangs leaning downward on the verge of collapse. One entire house had a roof displaced noticeably sideways from the foundation, its walls leaning in the direction of the displacement, clothes on a clothesline in the yard, the glow of a TV shining from within. The only thriving businesses we saw were a bar and a convenience store. We since have talked often of the extreme disrepair and poverty we witnessed, and the status of Picher as part of the Superfund site. Perhaps the saddest sight was the dirty, shirtless children playing in the yellowish mud that had drained directly off a big heap of mine tailings looming behind one house. This rock detritus (locally known as "chat") comprises mini-mountains in the countryside around Picher, as well as in portions of the town itself. The "chat piles" contain residue of the materials for which they were extracted: lead and zinc, as well as cadmium. The lead, in particular, has been the focus of concern because of its drainage from the tailings piles and into soil, as well as airborne dust contamination, and elevated lead levels in children and adults there. Whomever that whomever wishes to blame for the situation, the fact is that the area is highly toxic. It needs to be evacuated and remediated, not lived within. Those poor townsfolk have been residing in a festering wasteland (literally!) for decades, and now a substantial chunk of the town is blown to smithereens by a big fat tornado. Some folks didn't want to leave, but I hope this changes their minds. I applaud the notion of just helping the citizens of Picher to get the hell out and never return. Leave whatever's left of the town to the bulldozer and environmental mitigation process. The abandonment of Picher should have happened long ago, and it's terrible that it appears to take a killer tornado to finish off the town, effectively. This is not an occasion to celebrate, mind you. People perished! But perhaps some good can come from a bad event -- a blessing in disguise, of sorts. If all goes as hoped, a tornado never again will kill Picher residents, and kids never again will play in lead-contaminated mine waste there. ]]> http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/05/that-town-must-close-for-good.html http://www.stormeyes.org/tornado/blog/2008/05/that-town-must-close-for-good.html Weather AND Not Sat, 17 May 2008 06:54:25 +0000